Texas Democrats Dream Again: Talarico Leads Paxton Narrowly and Hinojosa Trails Abbott by a Few Points as Early Voting Ends
Reuters' eve-of-election assessment frames the stakes plainly: no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, the longest drought in the nation — and this year, for the first time since 1972, Democrats are contesting every state and federal race on the ballot.
Texas has been the Democratic Party's great unrealized hope for three decades, and on the eve of a midterm that could decide control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats are dreaming again — even as they brace for heartbreak. That is Reuters' assessment, published Friday, of a state where most polls show Democratic state Rep. James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate, and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa trailing three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by just a few points for governor.
The historical weight is the story. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, the longest drought in the nation, Reuters reported. This year Democrats are contesting every state and federal race for the first time since 1972. The fundamentals still lean the other way: polling from the University of Texas finds 49 percent of Texas voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, against 40 percent for Democrats, and Republicans have spent over $300 million on ads supporting Paxton, dwarfing the $102 million spent for Talarico, according to the Federal Election Commission data Reuters cited. Among likely Latino voters, Talarico leads 54 percent to 41 percent.
Thursday was the closing-argument day on the ground. Talarico and Hinojosa rallied supporters in Dallas, FOX 4 News reported, where Talarico's 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts' tour stop at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center drew about 2,600 people, according to The Christian Post; he pointed to more than 60,000 campaign volunteers and told the crowd the billionaire megadonors and their super PACs are spending more than $200 million to try to stop his campaign. A Texas Tribune report cited by FOX 4 put Elon Musk's giving into the Senate race at nearly $190 million. Paxton, meanwhile, held events across the state, including Beaumont on Thursday night, FOX 4 reported.
Abbott's chief strategist, Dave Carney, told Reuters the Republican ground game is peaking late by design and predicted victory. Early voting ends Friday, October 30, at 7 p.m. — 10 p.m. at seven Travis County sites — and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Whether 2026 is the year the drought breaks, or another entry in the heartbreak file, is now a turnout question.
