CNN Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton 49 to 43 in the Texas Senate Race, and Abbott Leads Hinojosa 48 to 46 for Governor

A CNN/SSRS poll of Texas likely voters released this week puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent in the U.S. Senate race, and Republican Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 48 percent to 46 percent in the governor's race. The survey was fielded October 20-27 among 923 likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 points — which makes the governor's race, on its face, a statistical tie, and leaves even the Senate lead within reach of the margin.

The Senate number carries a striking subgroup finding: among Latino likely voters, CNN found Talarico leading Paxton 63 percent to 29 percent. That is sampled preference in a subgroup, which carries greater uncertainty than the full-sample figures, and it is reported here as the poll reported it. CNN's polling release also put Democrats ahead in the Michigan Senate race and described the Texas governor's contest as having no clear leader.

The CNN survey is the latest — not the only — word on these races, and this desk has carried the others as they came: a Texas Southern University poll had the same two races at 49-47 and 50-47, and a Fox News poll had the Senate race tied at 49. Polls are snapshots with named sponsors, dates and margins, and the honest summary of all of them together is the one the campaigns are acting on: both races are close, and turnout will decide them.

The candidates spent Thursday acting on exactly that. Talarico and Hinojosa rallied supporters in Dallas in their final pushes, FOX 4 reported, with early voting ending Friday, October 30 and Election Day on Tuesday, November 3. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades; the CNN numbers say this cycle is the closest they have come in that span, and that the voters who show up in the next four days will settle whether 'close' becomes 'won.'