Texas Southern University Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton 49-47 and Abbott Leads Hinojosa 50-47 in the Final Week
A new Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters puts James Talarico two points ahead in the Senate race and Greg Abbott three points ahead for governor - both leads inside the survey's 2.19-point margin of error.
A third final-week pollster has weighed in on Texas, and its numbers sit between the two already on the board. Texas Southern University's survey, reported Thursday by CBS News Texas, puts Democrat James Talarico at 49 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 47 percent in the U.S. Senate race, and Republican Governor Greg Abbott at 50 percent against Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 47 percent in the governor's race.
The survey covered 2,000 likely voters from October 21 to 25, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 points - which means both of those leads are inside the margin, statistical ties by the poll's own arithmetic. Down the ballot, the same survey has Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick at 49 percent to Vikki Goodwin's 45, and Chip Middleton at 49 percent to Nathan Johnson's 45 in the attorney general's race.
The TSU numbers land in a crowded final week. A Fox News poll published earlier in the cycle had the Senate race tied at 49-49 among likely voters, while 254 Labs/YouGov polling has shown Talarico ahead by wider margins. Three pollsters, three slightly different pictures of the same race - the consistent thread is that the Senate contest is close enough that turnout, not persuasion, is likely to decide it.
That turnout is already being counted. More than 6.1 million Texans had voted early as of Thursday, with early voting closing Friday and Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
