Fox News Poll: Talarico and Paxton Are Tied at 49 Percent in the Texas Senate Race

Texas's Senate race is tied in the last Fox News poll of the cycle. The survey, conducted October 15 to 19 among 1,398 likely voters and released October 21, puts Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton at 49 percent each, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points. In Fox's September poll of the same race, Talarico led 51 to 49 - Paxton's share did not move; Talarico's slipped two points.

Fox News attributed the shift to Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who had backed Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, which Paxton won with President Donald Trump's backing. Paxton also gained a point with both men and women since September, while Talarico eased by a point among men and two among women. Among the broader pool of registered voters, Talarico leads 52 to 46 - the tie appears only when the screen narrows to likely voters.

The two races on the same ballot are not moving together. Talarico leads the favorability contest by eight points - 49 percent of respondents view him favorably, against 41 percent for Paxton - and the governor's race is steadier than the Senate race: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52 to 47, unchanged in its margin since September. Fox found ticket-splitting underneath both numbers: 7 percent of Talarico supporters say they will vote for Abbott, while just 2 percent of Paxton supporters say they will vote for Hinojosa. Texas outlawed straight-ticket voting in 2017, so every split has to be marked race by race.

The poll's field period closed the day early voting opened. Texans are now voting - early voting ends Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3 - so the Fox survey is the baseline the actual electorate is now testing.