New Texas Poll Puts Democrats Ahead in Every Statewide Race, With Talarico Leading Paxton 51-43 in the Senate Contest
The final week of early voting has a new number to argue about. A 254 Labs / YouGov Blue survey of 1,000 Texas voters puts James Talarico eight points ahead of Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate and Democrats narrowly ahead in all four other statewide races it tested — a rosier picture for Democrats than most other recent polls, and one to read with its sponsor in mind.
A new Texas poll released this week puts Democrats ahead in every statewide race it tested, five days before early voting ends. The 254 Labs / YouGov Blue survey, conducted Oct. 21–26 among 1,000 registered voters and weighted to likely-voter targets, has James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 51 percent to 43 percent in the U.S. Senate race, with 5 percent undecided.
The rest of the ticket runs closer in the same survey: Gina Hinojosa leads Gov. Greg Abbott 49-46 for governor; Vikki Goodwin leads Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 48-45; Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton 47-45 for attorney general; and Jon Rosenthal leads Bo French 47-43 for railroad commissioner. Among independents, Talarico's lead over Paxton widens to 60-31, and voters who say they are more enthusiastic than in past Novembers break for Talarico 57-41.
Two cautions belong with the numbers. The poll's margin of error is about 4.6 points, which puts every race except the Senate contest within or near it. And 254 Labs, a Texas political research firm named for the state's 254 counties, says it serves 'mission-aligned' subscribers — full crosstabs are not public — so its likely-voter weighting is its own.
Other recent surveys tell a tighter story. Texas Public Opinion Research's Oct. 15–18 poll had Talarico up four, 51-47, with undecideds pushed to choose, but Abbott ahead of Hinojosa by three and Middleton ahead of Johnson by two. The University of Houston's Hobby School put Talarico ahead 48-46, Emerson found the same two-point edge, and a Fox News survey in mid-October landed at 49-49. The honest summary, one week out: Talarico has led Paxton's number in most recent polling, the size of the lead depends on who is asking, and the governor's race has polled within the margin in both directions.
