Talarico Leads Paxton 50 to 45 in a New Texas Poll, and Hispanic Voters Favor Democrats in All Three Big Races
The N+ Univision poll by YouGov - 1,000 registered voters plus the largest Hispanic oversample in a statewide Texas poll - has Abbott up just two for governor and Republicans up three on the House ballot, one week before Election Day.
A new statewide poll released Tuesday, one week before Election Day, has Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45% in the U.S. Senate race, with 5% undecided. The N+ Univision poll, conducted by YouGov, interviewed 1,000 registered Texas voters and included an oversample yielding 980 Hispanic registered voters - described as the largest sample of Hispanic voters in a statewide Texas poll.
The other two headline races are tighter. For governor, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 46%, with 5% undecided. On the U.S. House ballot, Republicans lead 48% to 45%, with 6% undecided. The statewide margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, so both the governor's race and the House ballot sit inside it; the poll was conducted online from October 13 to 21.
Among Hispanic voters, Democrats lead all three contests: Hinojosa leads Abbott 52% to 43%, Talarico leads Paxton 55% to 37%, and Democrats lead the House ballot 52% to 41%. The poll puts the state's eligible Hispanic electorate at nearly 6.3 million voters, about 31.7% of the Texas electorate. In Central Texas, Democrats lead among Hispanic voters by 19 to 21 points across the three contests, and Talarico's widest regional margin - 29 points - comes among Hispanic voters in South Texas.
Immigration enforcement is the sharpest dividing line in the release: 56% of Hispanic voters say enforcement has gone too far, compared with 50% statewide, while 62% say the country should pursue border security and a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented immigrants together. Against the poll's September edition, the movement is small - the governor's race went from a 47% tie to a two-point Abbott lead, Talarico's five-point Senate lead held, and the House ballot moved from a two-point Democratic edge to a three-point Republican edge.
