Texas vs. Mississippi State Expert Picks: All Three Longhorns Wire Writers Take Texas, 34-17, 27-20 and 34-13
The picks agree on the winner and disagree on the margin. All three turn on the same fact: Mississippi State has not won since quarterback Kamario Taylor was hurt, and a redshirt freshman leads the Bulldogs into Austin on Halloween night.
All three Longhorns Wire writers picked Texas to beat Mississippi State on Saturday night in Austin, in the site's expert-picks file published Friday. Tommy Bresee predicted Texas 34, Mississippi State 17; Jamie Gatlin predicted Texas 27, Mississippi State 20; and Trey Luerssen predicted Texas 34, Mississippi State 13. The predictions are the writers' own, reported here as predictions - the game, at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Halloween night, has not been played.
Every pick turns on the same storyline. Mississippi State started 4-0 behind rising-star quarterback Kamario Taylor, Longhorns Wire wrote, but Taylor was hurt against Missouri and the Bulldogs have not won a game since, losing three straight. Redshirt freshman Parker Puckett leads the offense in his place, and Bresee wrote that the game 'profiles very well for Texas, both offensively and defensively,' with the Bulldogs much better against the run than the pass.
The caution in the file is Texas itself. Luerssen noted the Longhorns' win over Ole Miss last week was 'not aesthetically pleasing': 14 penalties for 134 yards, a 17-point first-half lead that Ole Miss erased early in the fourth quarter, and two Arch Manning interceptions plus a lost fumble that became an Ole Miss defensive touchdown. 'If Taylor was playing for the Bulldogs, I'd say UT might be in real danger of its third loss of the season,' Luerssen wrote. 'But without its star QB, Mississippi State should be a get-right win for Texas.'
History argues for taking the close pick seriously. Last season in Starkville, Longhorns Wire recalled, Texas needed overtime to beat these Bulldogs 46-38, in a game where Manning was knocked out and Matt Caldwell threw the winning touchdown. Gatlin's 27-20 is the pick that prices that history in; the two 34-point picks price in the quarterback gap. Saturday night settles which reading was right.
