Six Things to Watch as US Voters Decide Control of Congress: Four Seats, a Texas Fight, 1,000 Federal Monitors and $643 Million From Two Men
Tuesday is the first nationwide verdict on this presidency. Here is the scoreboard Reuters says will tell the story - and when.
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, Reuters reported - the first nationwide verdict on his presidency, and a test of whether voters want to check his power or accept the status quo despite frustrations over the cost of living and the war with Iran. The math is tight: Democrats need a net gain of just four seats in both chambers to overturn Republican majorities of 218-214 in the House and 53-47 in the Senate.
Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the House, Reuters reported, and early results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could show how big the night is. The Senate is the real fight: it will likely hinge on six to eight races, and Democrats need to flip Republican-held seats in states Trump carried by double digits - including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas, where this station has covered the Talarico-Paxton race to its Monday close. Even Kansas, despite Trump's 16-point win there, has become competitive in recent weeks, Reuters reported. Democratic wins in one or both chambers would likely trigger investigations into the administration's ethics, immigration enforcement and the Iran war.
Three more things will shape the night beyond the seat count. First, the count itself: Trump's Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day - roughly triple the last midterms - a move some local officials worry could intimidate voters, although the DOJ says those fears are baseless, Reuters reported; on October 22 the department sued to preemptively block Alaska from certifying its Senate result if the Republican incumbent loses narrowly, and Attorney General Todd Blanche declined to rule out intervention in state certifications. Second, turnout: polls showed Democrats significantly more enthusiastic, and early-voting data in party-registration states showed higher Democratic engagement - but Republicans argue their supporters traditionally wait for Election Day. Third, the money: Republicans held a spending edge of several hundred million dollars, Reuters reported, with Trump spending more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, and Elon Musk spending roughly $366 million during the cycle, including $276 million since July, according to Federal Election Commission data. Whether that advantage outweighed prices and the war is the last question Tuesday answers.
