Economy Is the Top Issue as Talarico Leads Paxton 48 to 46 in a New Emerson Poll of Texas Voters
Thirty-nine percent of likely Texas voters call the economy their top issue - up three points since September - in an Emerson College poll that puts James Talarico two points ahead of Ken Paxton with a week left in the Senate race.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 48 percent to 46 percent in the Texas Senate race in a new Emerson College poll reported by FOX 7 Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 1 percent and 5 percent of likely voters undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Talarico rose to 49 percent, Paxton to 48 and Brown to 3. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Texas voters from October 17 to 19 and carries a margin of error of 3.1 points - which makes the race, statistically, a tie inside the margin.
"Since August, Talarico's support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the report. Kimball added a warning that cuts the other way: if Brown's support on the final ballot 'melts' by Election Day, Paxton would likely gain, because those third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans; if it holds, Talarico benefits.
The issue table explains the closeness. The economy is the top issue for 39 percent of Texas voters, up three points from Emerson's September poll - ahead of immigration (16 percent), threats to democracy (13 percent), education (12 percent) and healthcare (9 percent) - the economy leads the next issue by 23 points. Among voters who named the economy first, Paxton actually leads, 47 to 46, with 6 percent undecided.
That split - a Democrat narrowly ahead overall, a Republican narrowly ahead with the voters who care most about the largest issue - is the shape of the final week. Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is November 3.
