Texas Governor's Race Tightens to 'Tilt R' on Election Eve as Abbott's Polling Lead Narrows to 1.7 Points
A poll aggregator moved the race a full step toward the Democrat on the last day, with its five newest surveys split three for Abbott and two for Hinojosa.
The Texas governor's race got tighter on its final day. PoliAgg, a poll-based ratings service, moved the contest between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa from Lean R to Tilt R in its Nov. 2 daily report, read in full this cycle, after Abbott's margin in its polling average narrowed from 2.4 points on Sunday to 1.7 points on Monday - reversing a rightward shift the service had reported earlier in the fall.
The five most recent polls in its database split three to two. AtlasIntel found Hinojosa ahead 49 percent to 48, and the New York Times/Siena survey put her up 48 to 47; YouGov had Abbott in front 50 to 49, Quantus Insights had him ahead 52 to 46, and Kreate Strategies had him leading 49 to 47, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 1 percent. Hinojosa, the challenger, has represented a Central Austin-area district in the Texas House since 2017 and previously served on the Austin Independent School District board; Dixon is also on Tuesday's ballot.
The aggregator's own forecast model is considerably more comfortable for the incumbent than its polling average: it projects an Abbott margin of 10.1 points, with an 80 percent interval running from 21 points Republican to just under a point Democratic, and it gives Hinojosa a 12 percent chance of winning. Prediction markets sit between the two views, pricing Abbott at 64.6 cents on Polymarket and 63 cents on Kalshi.
Whoever is right, the verdict will be delivered by a record electorate. A record 7.4 million Texans - about 39 percent of registered voters - cast early ballots in this midterm, and the same PoliAgg report rates the state's Senate race Lean D, with James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 3.3 points in its polling average. Polls close Tuesday at 7 p.m.
