New York Times/Siena Poll Puts Talarico Ahead of Paxton 50-43 and Hinojosa Ahead of Abbott 48-47 on Election Eve
The final New York Times/Siena survey, released Monday, gives James Talarico a seven-point lead in the Texas Senate race and Gina Hinojosa a one-point edge for governor - the strongest closing numbers Democrats have posted in Texas in a generation, with Election Day turnout still to decide both.
The last major poll of the Texas cycle landed Monday, and it gave Democrats the two numbers they have waited decades to see. The New York Times/Siena survey released Monday, Nov. 2, reported by Newsmax, puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent in the race for the U.S. Senate - and, in the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa narrowly ahead of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, 48 percent to 47 percent.
The Senate number is the strongest closing figure for Talarico in a major public poll, but it is not alone. A YouGov survey released Sunday had Talarico ahead 51 to 47. CNN/SSRS polling from Oct. 20-27 had him up 49 to 43, ActiVote has his lead at 4.2 points, and Texas Southern polling put the race at 49-47 - a run of results that leaves Paxton within reach in several of them and behind in all of them. Prediction markets moved with the polls: Kalshi priced Talarico at a record 76 percent on election eve and Polymarket at 75 percent, according to Action Network's Monday report.
The national environment in the same reporting points the same direction. An NBC News poll released Sunday put Democrats ahead 52 to 45 on the generic congressional ballot, and an Associated Press analysis found early-voting participation up 50 percent in Texas compared with the same point in 2022 - part of more than 50.7 million early ballots estimated nationwide by On Point Politics in its Nov. 2 update, and more than 7.7 million early ballots in Texas alone in NBC's TargetSmart model.
Every caution that applies to this race still applies on election eve. Texas has no party registration, so the early vote's partisan lean is modeled, not known; several of the Senate margins sit inside or near their polls' margins of error; and Republicans are counting on a strong Election Day turnout of their own. What Monday's numbers settle is narrower and still remarkable: both of Texas's top races go into Tuesday genuinely competitive, and the Democrat leads the Senate race in every major poll published in the final week.
