The Final Poll Before Election Day: Talarico Leads Paxton 50-43 in the New York Times/Siena Survey, and the Governor's Race Is Tied
The last major survey of the Texas midterms, released Nov. 1 among 1,215 voters, puts the Democrat outside the margin of error in the Senate race for the first time in the closing stretch — and leaves Abbott and Hinojosa at 48-47.
The final major poll of the Texas midterms has landed, and it gives Democrat James Talarico his clearest closing number of the race. A New York Times/Siena University poll released Nov. 1 shows Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% in the U.S. Senate race, according to USA TODAY's Nov. 2 report on the survey, read in full this cycle. The 7-point lead sits outside the poll's 3.3 percentage-point margin of error; the survey covered 1,215 Texas voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. A Democratic win would flip the Republican-held seat blue for the first time since 1988, USA TODAY noted.
The governor's race, in the same survey, is a tie in everything but name: Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa at 48% and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott at 47%, which USA TODAY described as statistically tied. That pairing matches the shape of the whole fall — the October surveys in USA TODAY's comparison ranged from Abbott by five (Fox News, Oct. 1) to Hinojosa by three (the New York Times' October survey), with the UT/Texas Politics Project putting Hinojosa up one, 49-48, in mid-October.
The Senate numbers have been steadier than the governor's. In the October comparison read this cycle, Talarico led or tied in every listed survey: Emerson College/Nexstar had him up 48-46 on Oct. 22, the Cook Political Report's battleground poll had him up 49-44 on Oct. 21, Fox News had the race tied at 49 on Oct. 21, and the Times' own October survey had him at 51-45. The final Siena number, 50-43, is the widest single margin of the closing month — and it arrives too late for either campaign to answer it with anything but turnout.
That is now the whole race. Early voting ended Friday; Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Travis County voters able to cast a ballot at any county vote center. Polls measure intention; Tuesday counts the people who show up — including, on the current forecast, in the rain.
